The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all have a gulf cane tracking near Tampa Bay in the medium/long range. Of course this would be the year to have two worst-case outcomes within 3 weeks of one another.
Thank you.
Saw this post and decided to run the correlation between ENSO and Oct/Nov precip. Sure enough there is a moderate negative correlation between Oct/Nov precip and ENSO (-ENSO = more precip, and vice versa). Still *not* statistically significant, but it’s a much stronger result than Oct/Nov precip & DJF temps.
However, when compartmentalizing the analog pool by ENSO, the sign of the correlation *inverts*. Which suggests ENSO is responsible for any covariance between Oct/Nov precip and DJF temps.
I think that is the aspect Jared fails to understand (beyond statistical significance tests). If the correlator itself correlates more strongly to another variable (like ENSO), then you are most likely picking up an ENSO correlation to begin with.