VP debates don't matter. They are both competent debaters so it will end up a draw with both sides thinking their guy won.
And there has been a slight upward trend for Kamala this week. She went from +2.4% to +2.9% this week on the 538 average.
She can definitely win.
Harris has been dropping in the polls.
I think the VP debate is going to go very differently than most people expect. Not sure how much weight that will carry with the voters though.