One thing I will say is that models almost always underestimate the speed and intensity of the low level cold. To see numbers like we are seeing at this range makes you wonder how cold it may get. Especially if we can get a good blanket of snow on the ground.

It's starring to feel like January and February of 2011. That was characterized by a negative AO and NAO.

The data pouring in for the medium/long term range is just mind blowing and locked in for the majority of the Nation east of the Rockies. Is this how the weather maps looked like back in the late 70's??? My goodness....

GFS went big and further south on that system the 4th-6th and has some ensemble support. It would definitely be a surprise to see that be our storm window since it always looked like the trailing system was the better bet. For now it's on its own though with the EPS further north still.

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for December 29 1880: Arctic air puts Lower Michigan in a deep freeze. Lansing falls to 15 below zero after a low of 17 below zero the day before. The high temperature of 1 above zero on this day is the coldest maximum temperature on record for the month of December at Lansing. 1984: Temperatures reach record highs for the second day in a row at Grand Rapids and Lansing. Amazingly, the record high of 65 degrees at Grand Rapids is set just after midnight. A cold front moves through in the morning and temperatures fall into the 30s during the afternoon. 1998, 0.1 inches of snow fell in Detroit. While this light snowfall is not usually a significant event at the end of December, this was the first measurable snowfall for the 1998-1999 winter season, making this date the latest first measurable snowfall of any winter season. 1880, the daytime temperature rose to only -3 degrees in Detroit. This is the second coldest maximum temperature for any day in Detroit.