The 06z GFS is rather different than other models, and even it's own previous runs, as it shows the western 500 mb energy not digging as much, closing off up in Nebraska instead of the southern plains. It's hard to buy that unless we see something from other models.

NWS DVN says 2-3” for CR and IC in their graphic. Lines up perfectly with the RDPS actually.

I don't know what's going on with the HRRR. The 00z run had heavy snow through northern Iowa. The 06z run was weaker and through central Iowa. The 12z run is weaker and through southern Iowa.

Your going to do great...what a great storm for the Heartland of the USA...Good Ol' Midwest Mauler in the works! BTW, my gut says your going to have a record JAN for your business. That's just my prediction for this month. Good luck!

EAX this morning. With a good lengthy discussion. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the system Sunday into Monday. Both deterministic and ensemble suites are somewhat more consistent with favorable forcing for accumulating snowfall to move across the lower Missouri River Valley. There is still discrepancies with respect to the propagation speed of the system, and if you are tracking raw snowfall output from deterministic guidance, then you have probably noted run to run shifts in snowband development. In one run, a lot of snow along the Interstate 44 corridor, and the next run shifts it to between Interstate 70 and Hwy. 36. Overall probabilities for QPF above 0.50 inches Sunday into Monday have increased, there are some solutions saying the the liquid equivalent could be between 1.50 to 1.75 inches, but others are more along the lines of 0.60 to 1.10 inches. Differences in exact track may be causing this. For blended probabilities suites like NBM, which includes time lagged models and mixed time model cycles, this is still broad brushing about 1-3 inches across much of the region. However, if you focus on just one ensemble suite and one time cycle, mean snowfall values within the heaviest axis are coming in between 5-8 inches of snowfall. Now, with each 06 hourly run, this axis of heaviest snowfall output can still shift 150-200 miles (note the previous mention of the Interstate 44 corridor vs between Interstate 70 and Hwy. 36). However, this is more consistent in the past few runs compared to ensemble runs done 48 hours ago. Therefore, am more comfortable now discussing the probabilities. Right now, probabilities for at least 6.0 inches of snowfall across lower Missouri River Valley is around 30 to 40 percent in the GEFS, but slightly lower in other ensemble suites. Probabilities for at least 3 inches are around 60-70 percent, and this is more consistent amongst multiple ensemble suites. If you are still wondering about the 12-15 inches that deterministic GFS keeps outputting, just in drastically different locations each time, very few ensemble members support this. Ensemble probabilities for exceeding 12 inches is currently under 15 percent (even for areas well outside our forecast area). Therefore, not giving any consideration to these 10+ inches in our forecast. With that being said, Winter Storm potential overall is increasing, at least based on potential snowfall. Will also point out this is expected to be strong cyclone, we could see winds above 30 MPH occur with this. We will likely see strong baroclinicity associated with this. There is potential for warm noses to develop that could create melting layers, perhaps resulting in mixed precipitation depending on the exact track of the system. Keep in mind if this happens, that eats into the snowfall totals, so the high QPF output we are noting with this may not go all into snow. There are few ensemble members that still track the cyclone much further south that take us out of the forcing, and leave us just with bitterly cold temperatures and dry conditions. But as indicated before, probabilities for measurable QPF have increased. Still not ready to advertise exact amounts yet, but it does seem the ensemble output can start to give us an idea at least on potential impacts and the potential for this to be a Winter Storm. After this system passes, expecting very strong CAA that will send temperatures well below normal.