Got it, so not a very warm month then? 12z EPS clearly agrees with the OP and shows a very broad ridgy signal quickly returning after our trough exits. As I said, a pretty warm and very dry signal, albeit possibly a bit less anomalously warm than the first two weeks of the month have been.

The good guys will rise again... soon! That being said... if we are going to have cold troughing for a few days then it better deliver a bunch of rain otherwise its wasted.

^That -PNA ridge is not very El Nino

My guy, I've made I think two seasonal forecasts in the past decade? Did I miss the ones you've been making? Here's what the latest GEFS shows past day 10. As we all know, the ensembles are the way to go if looking for LR guidance.

The small and transient mid-month trough has been well advertised for a bit now. There's no coherent signal for anything prolonged or significant beyond this weekend. The longer range has, in fact, consistently looked quite warm. For a self-proclaimed long range forecasting guru, maybe try issuing a month end prediction of your own rather than flinging your poo in here? It seems like you don't do those seasonal forecasts outside of winter and I fail to see why. I and many others yearn for your guidance, especially in these warmer months when our hard earned plans can depend on it! You seem to continually want to imply that this month won't have huge warm departures when all is said and done?