Honestly would not be shocked if this El Nino went so far off the charts that it had paradoxical effects. Weather horseshoe theory is real amirite

Exponential?

Lol was not expecting any rain today. But to my surprise, just got spit on by this little baby cell for a couple minutes. Just enough to wet the ground and get that petrichor smell going, nice

So much of that melting was augmented if not outright forced by variability high latitude circulation versus directly by warming temps. Almost all of the Arctic warming has been confined to the refreeze season (fall/winter) with very little warming observed during the melt season. There was a lot of old/thick multiyear flushed out of the Arctic into the NATL during the first decade of the 21st century via a mode of circulation commonly referred to as the “Arctic dipole” in literature. But that regime of seasonality terminated in 2013, and with it, the long term decline in Arctic ice.

This is also true of the NATL. The AMOC fears are based off a misinterpretation of ocean-atmosphere variability in proxy data. During the younger dryas (and prior reglaciation/glacial inception regimes) it was a dominant -NAO type circulation regime (a result of orbitally forced changes in tropical-extratropical bridge(s)) that forced a slow-down of the AMOC, not the other way around. The shutdown of the Indo-Asian monsoons and weakening of the Pacific Walker Cell/IPWP deep convection actually preceded the sharp NATL (and global) cooling by several years at the onset of get younger dryas.