The Clausius Clapeyron equation shows that global saturation vapor pressure increases 7% for every degree C of warming. Combining that with the global energy budget equation literally says that global mean precipitation has to increase by 1-2% for every degree C of warming. It has to, fundamentally, increase. The question then is how that increase is distributed globally. If circulation remains the same, it all goes to the areas where it is already raining. If the circulation slows down, then no, wet won’t get wetter regionally. Climate models have shown some increased precipitation along with slowing circulation. So, yes, if the climate models are wrong about the circulation changes then “wet gets wetter” won’t apply in some locations. But you would be crazy to think that the trend won’t largely hold overall, even if there are some exceptions.

Yeah, if you just look at one station the last decade has averaged a few inches above the long term mean. But then as recently as 2000-2013, we saw a decade+ period average well below the long term mean. Before that the 90s were a much wetter decade. Point being, I'm not sure the most recent "trend" really represents much long term.

I should have dropped this last night.

Similar to the “easy problem” and “hard problem” in neuroscience/philosophy, there is an easy and hard problem in climate science. Easy problem: Calculating the *initial* radiative forcing via GHG increases alone is relatively simple because you only need elementary radiative transfer physics to do it: Graybody temperature of a planet: Tg=[((1-a)*S)/(4σε)]^(1/4). Basically if you have the planet’s albedo, the solar constant, the Stefan-Boltzmann constant, and emissivity, you can calculate its average surface temperature. Approximation for CO^2 radiative forcing: ΔF=5.35ln(C/C0). Essentially the total radiative forcing in watts per square meter can be approximated by taking the natural logarithm of the concentration of CO^2 divided by the pre-industrial reference concentration (~280ppm). Each GHG has its own unique RF formula but essentially this is all you need to do. The hard problem: Calculating the spatiotemporal response by the earth system to any external radiative forcing is astronomically complicated due to the sheer volume of variables involved, as well as their multiple, multidimensional degrees of freedom. The resources and computing power required to *realistically* simulate this is massive. And even then, it’s unlikely you’d be able to adequately capture internal climate variability (almost every model has failed to do this, even with global temperature records being adjusted to better-reflect model output, if we’re being honest about it). Our climate models are wholly inadequate for this purpose. It’s sort of the unspoken yet obvious truth that most scientists already know. But it’s the best we can do for now.

Pretty strong West/East gradient that summer. Not really the beastly, sprawling, monster heat ridge mid continent that Phil has been selling for months now. But it was definitely hot in the East.