Its pointless to gauge in-the-moment responses when the election is still months away. Lets see what Trump and his traveling circus will do to completely torpedo any goodwill he might have garnered this week.
Would like to wait for more polling on this, so proceed with caution. This poll was conducted after news of the conviction, so it was basically just a 1.5 day long poll or so. But among Republicans, 10% say the conviction makes it less likely they vote for Trump, while 35% say it makes it more likely they vote for Trump.
Among independents, 25% say the conviction makes it less likely they vote for Trump and 18% say it makes them more likely to vote for Trump.
These numbers would suggest that any near-term movement in the national horserace polls may end up being noise, but we'll see how that plays out in the coming days.
In theory, the conviction would seemingly have the most potential to move people when it's fresh in their minds, so basically now and perhaps after a sentencing occurs this summer. I'm sure Democrats will be doing all they can from now through election day to remind people that Trump is a convicted felon, but people will have had a ton of time to digest and process the news by the time Fall gets here.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-10-republicans-less-likely-vote-trump-after-guilty-verdict-reutersipsos-poll-2024-05-31/