To chime in with @Clinton, we are still on track to possibly rock and roll tomorrow with a chance of strong tornadoes in the area. Seems a little early for this based on recent years, but here it is already.

No surprise that Melissa was retired, and will be replaced with Molly in 2031.

No where near your situation ofc, but cannot help but agree with your sentiment wrt the models always over-selling any precip events. This from my local forecast sums up most of it: "New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch". Looping some model runs, again its miss S then grazed N - another new month with the same drum beat rolling on! Nothing is indicating where/how the many inches of qpf the globals were showing actually happen here in Mid-Michigan. At least we avoid snow (for a bit anyways). Heard a red-winged black bird yesterday evening - they don't winter here so another step into spring by nature. Stat-padding snows at best is my call going forward.

I added another half inch last night bringing my March total to 1.5 inches. Tomorrow brings the first significant chance for severe weather this season.

We have picked up 0.18" of rain since midnight and 0.50" of rain over the last 3 days. We will see more rain later today and tonight before we dry out a bit tomorrow. A couple more showers Saturday as we start our long awaited warm up through much of next week. We could see highs near 70 degrees by Tuesday.