Leaderboard

And you're one of them. NOT with confrontational people like you. It's fascinating seeing you call people out for their opinion but then acting as if your opinion is the only one that matters.

You sure have been in weenie panic mode lately.

I've come to the conclusion that you were picked on in school and growing up.

I think the best thing Jesse can do is put the whole board on ignore then he can have a love fest with himself.

Nailed it. I've been lurking here and the other forum for several years. Some people seem to think that a realistic analysis is being pessimistic or negative just to be pessimistic or negative. Some seem to think a statement of truth, for example "it feels like spring today" is trolling. This makes no sense to me but I don't take the weather too personally. I'm bummed about this ski season but there will be future ones. I'm bummed about the lack of valley snow since 2008 but we will get another snowstorm someday. It is what it is.

Hmm. Thinking GEM is a little overdone (as is to be expected), and ECMWF is the outlier. Not around my computer now to look over all the models and such, but I'm not biting on the Euro at the moment, as everyone else has expressed. Fun times ahead...

Better! With much improvement at 168 hours

Yikes, those are "barbarically" cold temps as Skilling likes to say. Speaking of Lake Michigan, here's the ice coverage as of a couple of days ago. As this winter progresses, the lake snow machine may start slowing down due to ice. Lake Erie is already at a point where lake effect is basically zilch. http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/lice_00%20_7_.gif

Wasn't it the GGEM that started the westward trend for the Clipper last weekend??? Edit: Could be that the GGEM has a better handle on these Clippers since they are coming out of Canada and its a Canadien model.

You never know Geo's, this Clipper is pretty potent, Euro/NAM/GFS may start turning the corner as better sampling is taken within the next day or two.

Why do you bother contributing to this when you apparently live at the arctic multiple times a winter. It is like a slap in the face. It would be so easy for me to be breezy about winter weather with other regions if I lived where you do.

Yawn as far as precip goes

The control line is of a lower resolution than the operational and is developed using the best analysis and is usually what is perturbed to produce the remaining members. I lifted that definition from a GFS training page. I don't know what "best analysis" really entails though. If the control line and the operational are somewhat in agreement that means the operational can be considered more reliable than if they don't somewhat agree. In the case of the current 18Z ensembles it looks like the operational is in poor agreement with the control line after Feb 3rd but in good agreement prior to that. Since the operational is much warmer than the control line after the 3rd I would guess that the warmer solution is less likely. Edit: the hauptlauf is the GFS Operational output.

I'm liking the chance for no school at least one day next week. Tuesday morning looks insanely brutal and just as bad as the first outbreak. Other than that I'm hating this cold and I'm almost sick of this winter. I want one more big snowstorm and I'm pretty much done. These clippers are getting annoying to track and just don't amount to much.

if we do get any big storms with this cold pattern in place than we could get big snowstorms out of this cold pattern

not to get all deadspin, but +1. new 18z gets the action going within the believable time range with atmospheric river action - doubt the ski areas would like that much.

Definitely looking mighty cold when we get to the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. I'm usually a big winter weather fan, but I'd be OK with temperatures in the 20s and a snowstorm rather than multiple clippers in the -10s. Ah well- considering the past few winters, can't really get too picky about the wintry weather we do receive

Mike Caplan's 7-day forecast has it subzero from Sunday night thru Wednesday Morning, -17 Monday night. Seems like there will be more winds involved than what the models were showing a couple days ago as PV is farther south and west.

If there is 6 inches of snow, I will set up a lawn chair on my front steps and eat popcorn just like that. I am moving Jan 30th, I am sure my new neighbours will think I am crazy.

I'm sure you're not buying into this model. No way is it going to hit 40 and the qpf is laughable. If ,and thats a big if, all the other models follow suit then I will bow down to King Euro. This clipper really has alot going for it and the models should trend wetter with each run.

There is strong offshore flow right now thanks to the massive, inversion induced cold pool east of the cascades. PDX has been seeing east wind gusts close to 40mph. I think that has more to do with the clearing down the valley than the blisteringly strong late January sun. Rush the seasons to a ridiculous extent if you'd like though. You won't find me talking about fall in late July. Maybe mid-August at the earliest. By then the change in daylight actually becomes noticeable to the casual observer. Just like the lengthening days will in mid-February.

I remember the day when I was learning actual meteorology that they never had snow accumulation cheat maps.

Significant improvement seen here. I would like to see the correlation rate higher of course. Not too shabby at all. Improving. I completely agree. It's called being objective or realistic. Don't jump on people if what they are posting isn't what you want to hear. Allow people to have an opinion. Looks quite good. Nice pattern progression after day 7. I wasn’t expecting to see that. It leaves some room for newly found optimism.

I can feel the hype building already... I'm sure some of you read the blog post by Brad Panovich "Wishcasting Vs. Forecasting." He also goes over some detail about the main difference between deterministic and ensemble forecasting, a great introduction to those not as familiar with the subject. He makes some REALLY excellent points, and it inspired a recent post of mine (Why Meteorologists get a Bad Reputation), that might be worth your time. I know a lot of weather enthusiasts are passionate about this topic, so I'd love to hear what some of you felt. As a side note, I wonder if it would be worth starting up a thread/topic just for the discussion of weather blogs?...

This ain't too shabby either.

Pretty soon we’re all going to be reacting like this to GFS runs inside day 5!!!