And then it obviously started (peaked in fact) before the 4th in 2021. Also plenty of summery/dry weather well before the 4th in 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015.
So really, that old adage about summer starting on 7/5 hasn't applied to at least 7 of the past 10 years.
Everything is warmer than 2010 so that goes without saying (however those OISST SST maps are too warm).
But I suspect the pattern will structure itself similar to that. The ridge will likely approach/ride the west coast initially before re-centering just offshore, analogous to 7/5 - 7/15, 2010.
Though it’s possible I’m being too optimistic again. So far each time we’ve gone through this intraseasonal mode it’s ended with the +TNH response underperforming vs long range guidance. The same failure modes are present with this event too (and it’s a shallower wave). So, caution would be prudent.
True, although that was their #1 and 2007-08 was #3, so they definitely weren't due for awhile after that.
That said, 2022-23, 2018-19, 2016-17, and 2010-11 were all well above normal for that area.