Models have a pretty dry October, which breaks the trend of the last 19 years. This is the 2nd trend break so far this season - 1st being 8 +NAO periods, after 3 +nao's in the last 4 years. It will be interesting to see if a similar Winter pattern happens, because they have all been the same on the Pacific side '16-17 to '23-24.

92F here today. I haven't seen a cloud in days

I'd still argue against this. Those wind gusts were largely at the 900mb level and higher and only measured at the surface because of the terrain. Certainly very serious winds with severe damage all the same, but not comparable to the sea level wind speed which is generally what a hurricane's strength is measured by. Helene still lost strength quickly like any other hurricane, it's just that the inland topography allowed for the strong winds to more easily reach ground level. The impacts of a tropical storm on that terrain are typically going to be exponentially worse than the impacts of a storm with the same strength hitting a relatively flat coastal plain. We had 100mph winds in the mountains of SoCal when Hilary hit the state, but the storm was still only classified as a tropical storm by the time it got there too. This is the actual track of Helene. It was down to a tropical storm by the time it reached these areas and blasted them with those effects. Much, much weaker than when it made landfall. Helene was moreso story of a worst case scenario track (and horrible luck with that Predecessor Rain Event) rather than a story of a storm that refused to weaken.

I agree with what Elon just said at the Butler rally. And thanks to Elon for buying Twitter and turning X into a free speech platform!!