It seems to be oceanic High pressures in both the Atlantic and Pacific that are making the eastern side of the oceans very warm. The current orientation is actually more +WPO, 0.9 correlation around and SW of Japan. Hopefully that pattern breaks. It's been +WPO 5/6 Winters (1 Neutral), and for most of the last 9 months.
Worst one of my lifetime. I'm 30 minutes north of Baltimore. cap was not breaking for anything in June/July.. I always was a believer in hotter temps producing the good storms, but this Summer it would take like 3 frontal boundaries to just have rainshowers despite 90s and 100s. I thought that was a pretty good indication that the hurricane season wouldn't be so wet. The pattern actually started in February when 24/28 days were cloudless. But it has rained a lot recently now. Pouring now.
That’s true, but it’s displaced so far to the west.
This isn’t your classic canonical -PMM/-PDO SSTA signature. The NPAC eastern boundary current is actually weaker than the 30yr average, which does not reflect a NPAC that is responsive to La Niña (at the moment).
Where are u located? Been the worst thunderstorm season in memory here.
Most hot/ridgy summers are lackluster in the convective department but 2024 has been especially terrible.