That ECMWF run last night was incredible for cold air. We even get a little snow here, but it also has accumulating snow in the gulf I included the meteogram from here for the EPS. It's certainly one of the coldest members, but good support for some pretty cold weather with some risk of a dusting to a couple inches even down this way. Though I would maintain its still most likely not going to snow. Worth mentioning also that the GFS has had some snow around Jan 7-10 here the last two runs. Most of that made possible by the trough being a bit further west.

Were you able to watch the video? I agree with you on the patience part of things. It certainly takes awhile to see the whole picture.

Interesting to compare what the ensembles were saying for the new year about 12.5 days out versus about 3.5 days out now. Lots can change. The big picture was about right, but you can see the +PNA block did not exactly materialize like they had and we have some extra systems cutting through the conus. Looking ahead, about 12 days we can see the strong signal for the eastern trough but its been trending more westerly with the cold air the last day.

Woah, so this aligns perfectly to what I was just saying! Awesome sauce...this year's LRC has definitely been one that has taught me patience to say the least!..LOL...well, nevertheless, I'm stoked about what is going to transpire as we open up JAN....let's get the party started and lay down some WHITE GOLD!

Here ya go from his last story. Looks like 44 days There is an increasing probability of a major winters storm around January 5th to 10th as the LRC comes into focus. Let’s take a look: The weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere has two main phases of this year’s LRC. Phase 1 is in motion now and it is going to transition into Phase 2 by around January 10th. Before this transition happens, a series of storm systems will affect the United States with one of the stronger ones possible around January 7th. Let me show you the first exhibit of this year’s LRC by looking at cycles 1, 2, and 3. Watch today’s video as I showcase the three cycles, and then I will continue with the explanation below: The 500 mb level of the atmosphere is around half way up in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight at all, and the surface, where we all live, has around 1013.25 mb of pressure on us at all times, give or take a bit when a storm with low pressure moves across or a high pressure area moves in. This half way point is around 18,000 feet above us. The winds blow parallel to these height lines as you can see below: This first map above, and the one below, shows the flow on October 7, 2024, or right at the very beginning of this year’s LRC. I labeled some of the big features from #1 to #4 showing three troughs/upper lows, and one big ridge. The map above shows October 7th, and then this map below shows that the weather pattern has cycled back through on November 20th. And, then the following map shows a forecast of the weather pattern for around January 2nd, three to five days before the potential major winter storm forms. Compare the last three maps showing October 7, November 20, and the forecast for January 2. It’s the first, “you can’t make this up” revelations of the season. What happens a few days later is going to be fascinating to watch unfold. That feature #1 on the January 2, 2025 forecast, is predicted to ride in and potentially interact with some Arctic air. This will potentially create the conditions favorable for this Major Winter Storm as shown below: The maps may show the storm, or some may not show this developing winter storm. We now know enough about this year’s LRC to predict that there is a 90% probability a Major Winter Storm will form. What is the probability you will see snow from this storm; thunderstorms from this storm; or get missed entirely by this storm? For Kansas City, I put the probability at 50% that this storm will impact your local area. We will learn a lot more in the coming days.