Happy New Year! It was a fairly steady 35* night in my corner. If there were any chonky splats, it happened while I was asleep. We've a brisket in the Traeger for New Year's Day dinner and it smells so good! I hope everyone has a great day.

Speaking of the NBM, it is much less prone to wild swings due to being a blend of various models. Makes it a little hard to discern overall trends, but a trend gif of the past three runs shows this morning's 12z had a small northward adjustment along with strengthening of totals.

Some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain here this morning. Looks like precip is about to end though.

NWS FSD refuses to touch this system with a ten foot pole. It has barely even gotten a mention in their AFDs over the past couple days. They just skip right over the system and talk about next week's potential cold air outbreak. The extent to which they have discussed this storm has been "potential light snow on the horizon Sat/Sun but left NBM as default POPs due to uncertainty". That's it. Their discussions can sometimes be more detail-oriented and fun when the event gets closer but 90% of the time they are kind of a boring read with how conservative they are in forecasting. Oh well. Hopefully we can get some better trends today and tomorrow and force them to acknowledge the potential a bit more.

That's pretty insane. How far back do they have data for?? And can I get a link to that? A 988 mb SLP near Evansville deepening still as shown would certainly fit the bill. Harrison (the trees and forest dwellers here at that time) should've done well with that set-up too. Records here start about 40 yrs too late ofc.