It feels beautiful outside w a balmy 47F. Heading for the 50s w a blend of clouds & sun. Some breezy conditions at times. Better enjoy this now because Ma Nature says, nasso so nice mid to late week week as the "Polar Express" arrives, along w potential storminess.

This storm looks almost exactly like the one that came thru on Oct. 6th Almost exact same placement and everything. The AO and NAO then trended negative after it went thru. If this is the same storm this would put the LRC at 45-47 day cycle!

Let the fun begin.

All of these snow maps got me fired up with the real potential to firing up our first winter storm thread of the season as Ol' Man Winter returns for the 2025-26 season! By the way, I turned my Heat on this morning as it got down to 66F. My thin blood is not used to this colder weather. Jacket and Hoodie season has begun in the Valley of the Sun!

Taking a look at the overnight model runs... 00z ECMWF sure looked nice. Among the more snowy runs it has spit out lately. 00z EPS was a nice improvement for Iowa. 00z AIFS delivered another absolute whopper. And the 00z GFS was really funky, looking nothing like the above maps. The 06z GFS also looked different, with one storm north and one storm south. These funkier solutions might correlate to a recent sharp drop off in 500mb verification for the GFS.