Yeah, there's a reason why outside of a narrow window from May 1 to June 15, surface based warm core convection of any significance on the westside is nearly unheard of. Just very rare for us (even there, let alone other months) to thread the needle with the right amount of heating and right moisture and forcing dynamics to make those stars align for us.

At least I got this gem from 8/25/23. There were a few other good days I caught too but not in photos. 2025 was the first summer since 2021 where I failed to catch a thunderstorm mid-cell.

Roughly a foot of rain down the coast over the next month-ish

Last night's extended 00z GEFS. Remarkably consistent Niña signal, with some hints at a more easterly block after 1/10

All the warm anomalies, none of the fun. The last five summers in a nutshell