Night Shift 6z GEFS is so D**n close just need the ridge to meander east....

Usually it seems the general rule of thumb is ridging trends too far east with time, but for the past several weeks it has been the opposite just persisting over the Bering and only at times edging into far western Alaska. I would think that is going to change Saturday/Sunday 00z or 12z runs. It could be that who knows we have to model ride will into January or February before winter arrives. That was the case a few year ago. I remember how boring, disappoint, and grueling model riding was until February. I hope not. If you look at the overall pattern across the North Pacific over the past 7 days of model runs(The past 28 runs) you can see it just wouldn't take much to quickly move us into a very favorable cold pattern. 12z GFS in 3 hours 35 minutes 12z ECMWF in 5 hours 23 minutes

Getting rain here with a temperature of 39 so yes will lose a good amount of the snowpack today. Some weather history for December 18th 1957 — A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum) and in 1981 — A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David Ludlum) The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/29 there were 29 HDD’s there was no rain or snowfall. The day started with 6” of snow on the ground. The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 55 was in 1939 the coldest high of 11 was in 1901 the record low of -5 was in 1926 the warmest low of 39 was in 1939 the wettest was 1.03” in 2002 the most snowfall of 4.0” was in 1951, 1929 and 1901. The most on the ground was 13” in 1970. The December thaw will continue today with rain, that will melt a good amount of the snow pack and there should be a good amount of bare spots. It looks to turn colder tonight with the rain changing to some light snow it doesn’t look like there will be much snow but there very well could be some slippery spots. The week before Christmas looks to have a up and down pattern. Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids Today Showers. Patchy fog after 8am. High near 44. South wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Rain showers before 10pm, then rain and snow showers between 10pm and 11pm, then snow showers after 11pm. Patchy fog between 7pm and midnight. Low around 20. West southwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Snow showers likely before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 22. West northwest wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind around 11 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 23. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Monday Night A chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Night Shift 6z GEFS - 10 Day rainfall, snowfall totals

Night Shift 6z GEFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps