We’ll always have that epic 00z run

When it's warm, I go to get my snowmobile running. Can't get it to start. Give up, figure winter will be garbage like usual. It gets cold early, trails are in great shape, snowmobile won't run. Finally decide to clean my carbs, snowmobile starts on second pull. Has not had significant snow in the area since then. Spend 11 hours in the car to go to the UP to catch a big 6-10in storm. End up with 2 inches of crud with rain. Make plans in the fall to go with a friend to his favorite place to snowboard, pattern changes to great LES in the UP that week and riding with him jacks up a UP trip. Buy a new snowboard, the day before it's scheduled to arrive, 50f and rain. Yet I don't give up, lol.

Looks like the GFS is struggling. Interestingly the GFS and ECMWF look basically the same in terms of surface conditions.

Very mild today and Tuesday with rain on Tuesday. The colder, with some snow on Wednesday there will be very little snow before late week with there could be several rounds of snow and cold. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI KEY MESSAGES MILD WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY COLDER WITH FREQUENT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND Detailed Forecast Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 35. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Tuesday Drizzle likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. South southwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Tuesday Night A chance of rain before 1am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow between 1am and 4am, then rain likely after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Wednesday Snow after 7am. High near 33. North northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 23. Thursday Night A chance of snow showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Friday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Saturday Snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Sunday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. The overnight low here in my yard was 27 I have1” of snow on the ground. This snow will be gone before we get any more snowfall later in the week at this time it is cloudy and 32 here in my yard. The official H/L in Grand Rapids yesterday was 32/24 there was just a trace of snowfall the highest wind gust was 37 MPH out of the NW there was officially 2” of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 2013 the coldest high of 8 was in 1912 the record low of -14 was in 1918 the warmest low of 39 was in 2013 the most snow fall of 10.0” was in 1918 the most on the ground was 22” in 1918. Some weather history for January 12th 1987 Twenty-seven cities in the Upper Midwest reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 72 degrees at Valentine NE and 76 degrees at Rapid City SD set records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) and in 1988 Parts of North Dakota finally got their first snow of the winter season, and it came with a fury as a blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Fargo ND, winds gusted to 65 mph at Windom MN, and wind chill readings in North Dakota reached 60 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

A sunny couple of days with seasonably chilly temperatures to start the week with an increasing chance of some combination of rain and then snow by the middle to late week. Temperatures trending to below normal by next weekend.