All signs pointing towards alot of rainfall tonight for mby. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma & Southeast Kansas into Central Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 020000Z - 020600Z SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing along a nearly stationary frontal boundary and developing area of low pressure are training and merging within the clusters as they track northeast. Despite very dry antecedent soil conditions, rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour with each strong cell will cause widely scattered instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis along a stationary frontal boundary is underway across southeast Kansas this evening. A cluster of storms have developed southwest of the low, and is quickly congealing with other storms that have developed roughly along the Kansas-Missouri border south of Kansas City. The storms across Oklahoma have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. Any hail with the storms should diminish with time as the atmosphere more fully saturates in and around the cluster of storms. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will increase into the night. The low center will likely merge with a second low and Pacific front which is back to the west (not shown). These two features approach to each other will stall the eastward progression of the storms over the next several hours, allowing additional time for training convection to produce heavy rain. Antecedent soil conditions are bone dry across all of the highlighted area, so it may take another couple hours of heavy rainfall across the warned area before flooding can occur. Locally however, any areas under an extended duration of heavy rain could see localized flash flooding occur sooner. PWATs to 1.6 inches are being advected into the low on 30-40 kt southerly winds at 850 mb, which will sustain the storms into the overnight as that same low-level-jet intensifies above 50 kts once the second Pacific front catches up to the storms. More substantive eastward progression of the complex is expected late tonight, after 06Z, as the Pacific front catches up to the stationary boundary of storms and pushes everything off to the east. This will substantially diminish the flash flooding threat for this portion of the Plains. Wegman

Insanity. Even with subtracting 2F for UHI.

Actually there is historically El Nino tendency +3-5 years after a Strong Nino (2:1 Nino vs Nina).

If I had to guess the next few months will be warmer and drier than normal overall…but we will see. Having a pretty dry first half of April makes it tough to get back up to normal in the second half.

I have unconfirmed reports of rotation SE of Oregon City. Can anyone back this up? I don't trust the source FTR, but radar could back their claim.