My honest thoughts are that summers are going to keep warming as they have, though at intermittent rates not entirely bound to the 2012-present skyrocket we've seen. Much of this newfound warmth has been simply advection based, too, where a more bloated 4CH sends more desert air into the area than it used to, cutting off our marine access a bit more successfully. You can see the impact of that desertification in the fact that coastal sites haven't seen nearly as much summer warming as the interior airports, barring the increased number of heatwaves that mix out the marine layer all the way to the water. One of these days we're going to see a one-off summer or a pair of summers, where troughing is more or less encouraged on the westside, and we see exactly how cool we get with proper marine air. 2019's summer background state is the closest we've come since 2011, though that year had far too much of a southerly component to cool off at night. I think 2011 or maybe even 2000 is our ceiling. Though it would require something extraordinary. I just don't buy, even with the last decade and a half of warming, that we are incapable of an oceanic summer now. We live an unimpeded 200 miles from the coast, when our weather systems that affect airflow are broad 500-1000 mile wide cutoffs. If just one cutoff sits over our area, even for the majority of only one month out of the summer, that month's averages are going to be below normal.

I forgot, what's the rule here again? I remember something about possible forecast used for USA overlay in a couple of weeks, but I'm not 100% sure

A summer like 2011 or 1993 would probably be a massive shock to the system especially for people who’ve moved to western Washington in the last 10 years. Hard to imagine pulling off something similar to either of those years nowadays.

IIRC May at SEA warmed +1.6F from the 1971-2000 to the 1981-2010 averages…and almost all of our warmest summers have been in the last 10 years. Everyone whos lived here a long time can tell the difference from the past compared to pre 2011. Is it so hard to accept our warm season as a whole is trending warmer and in some years drier? The warming has been much more pronounced than the drying. The 1991-2020 averages are going to be a big jump over the 1981-2010 ones even.

Tim would be shocked to learn how good the Eugene area is for water based recreation.