fwiw, here's the composite for strong Ninos, not just super Ninos (left out 1987 since that Nino peaked unusually early in late summer/early fall and then weakened pretty quickly). I set the scale to the exact same as the images that you posted for easy comparison. Still a warm signal in the northern US, but you can see how it's not quite to the same magnitude as it is for the super Ninos.

terrible wx flying into seatac... gotta be the dullest approach of all NA airports zzz.

Good Morning again. lol

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM both send the initial ULL on eastward track through California instead of bringing it up into the PNW. GFS has been showing this for a few runs but this is the first time the GEM has shown this solution. GEM still brings some rain on Thursday and Friday with the northern trough sinking south... but GFS looks pretty meager for rainfall through Friday.

Yuck