My guy, I've made I think two seasonal forecasts in the past decade? Did I miss the ones you've been making?
Here's what the latest GEFS shows past day 10. As we all know, the ensembles are the way to go if looking for LR guidance.
The small and transient mid-month trough has been well advertised for a bit now. There's no coherent signal for anything prolonged or significant beyond this weekend. The longer range has, in fact, consistently looked quite warm.
For a self-proclaimed long range forecasting guru, maybe try issuing a month end prediction of your own rather than flinging your poo in here? It seems like you don't do those seasonal forecasts outside of winter and I fail to see why. I and many others yearn for your guidance, especially in these warmer months when our hard earned plans can depend on it!
You seem to continually want to imply that this month won't have huge warm departures when all is said and done?
It was an extreme winter with very persistent patterns in the vein of a few previous winters (1980-81, 1933-34, etc), but warmer due to AGW.
Like those previous winters, it also featured some very notable cold up north in Alaska/Yukon, so while it was wacky, it still made some sense from a historical pattern perspective.