Honestly doubt this “cold wet” pattern holds til the 4th but we will see. Glad to have some rain coming but hopefully no rain on the 4th. It can rain on the 3rd and 5th.

Great stuff! Impressive they pulled off an October shutout, and it looks like the rains didn't really get going that year until December. I'm guessing the abrupt temperature transition on the 21st reflected the relaxing of a persistent weak offshore surface gradient, allowing the inversion to form?

I actually prefer Niños at this point. They tend to frontload each of our seasons a bit, which helps align more with what I'm feeling throughout the year. And in the winter it means our coldest patterns actually align more with our best sun angles. They also have a tendency to reset the intradecadal trends a bit and shake things up for a few more years. Which is sorely needed for us because this last year has been thoroughly putrid weatherwise.

Yeah 2022's torchfest basically ended at about the exact point where legitimately summery conditions become almost impossible in the lowlands due to the beginning of inversion season. Had that pattern gone on even a week or two longer, it probably would have had a much chillier and foggier end. Fall 1993 is a much more recent example, rainy season basically didn't start until Thanksgiving that year but it flipped from warm/dry to cold/dry around the end of October.

I really hope this nino goes full 1999 Rams or Indiana football. Nobody expected them to defy those odds they were facing. And they whipped teams' asss that season. Same thing happened to the 1968-69 NY Jets. Everyone counted them out and they...beat the Baltimore Colts who were the strong nino that everyone figured would easily win. Let's hope mother nature can play the fuckking...