If you want to use the ECMWF AIFS then I suggest the ensemble mean because the operational run is just too aggressive.

Arm pit weather is officially here EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 105-110F expected. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northeast, northwest, and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to midnight CDT Thursday Night. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Long duration heat will impact the region with poor heat relief during the overnight hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Ugh... just ugh. This is the most likely result, too. We're exhausting our cold weather token supply at the worst possible time.

GFS AIFS is not endlessly cold troughing.

Mother Nature is saving all the warmth and ridging for winter when it matters! Imagine an idyllic PNW Christmas. Heavy flooding in BC and northern WA. 59/50 at PDX, 62/48 at EUG. Timberline finally announcing they're open for skiing (Bruno's and Pucci only) after herculean snowmaking efforts. 43 and rain in Leavenworth and Sunriver. The national news announcing another winter storm for New Orleans and Pensacola. Winter perfection. Hopefully we can sneak in a few six figure acreage wildfires before the pineapple ARs put them out, though.