Cool throughout. Got it

The MJO/BSISO should crank up the WPAC convection machine later in July. That usually is a reliable conduit to +TNH/western heat, so I’d be surprised if there aren’t at least a couple weeks of that during said timeframe. But that could still end up trending more transient, either via the speed/amplitude of the intraseasonal waves themselves or the deposition of AAM bringing about a quicker transition to a more progressive regime. TBD.

Heads up: I'm going to be doing some fairly large refactoring of the backend pipeline in order to better support ensemble members and associated meteograms, among other things. This may cause some sporadic issues over the next 24-48 hours as I get any bugs ironed out.

Strong Niños basically have a window of about December 15 - January 15 to deliver out here. Save some freak SSW or something, the rest of winter is usually a lost cause. Basically I’m just hoping we end up with something close to a normal mountain snowpack this winter. I don’t really expect anything in the lowlands, but it’s just a special kind of depressing when Mother Nature refuses to give us a wintry scene even at the ski resorts. Not to mention how destructive to the ecosystem two back-to-back generationally bad snowpack years would be.

I'm excited for fall/winter. I've already made peace with there being little chance of a meaningful arctic event, but the jet should be roided and show up early. Maybe we manage the 2006 route. We've had some quite boring Falls recently and there's a lot of energy being released in the tropical Pacific. Something notable should happen IMO, maybe historic if we're lucky, and I'm talking about more than just historically low snowpack, though that too is probably a real likelihood given ENSO and modern climo