In general I think the winter is likely to suck for many of us, but it may not be completely devoid of some interesting stuff, especially as winter goes on. Looking pretty likely to be dealing with a Nino of unprecedented strength (or at least nearly unprecedented strength in the more conservative scenario), and maybe there will be a positive curveball or two at some point. The biggest snowstorm on record for Louisville, KY happened during a super Nino (1997-98) and there have been some other big snowstorms in super Nino years, at least for the Midwest/Northeast. There should be an absolutely roided up subtropical jet with such an intense Nino, and while that will tend to focus the biggest precip anomalies down south and perhaps up the east coast, it's possible that it could also benefit other areas. So not holding out hope for a long, sustained winter around here by any means, but maybe a more favorable stretch or two could unfold at some point (favored later in winter) or at least a good storm.

NAM really going to town with a convectively augmented vort later Thursday into Friday.

Condolences on the missed burger.

Max of 82.6˚F IMBY this afternoon. Not getting excited about the possible TTT mid-month until it gets in the more believable range. Really doesn’t look like TTT, actually. A mere 100˚F at PDX? Happens every year nowadays. Last map I saw showed northern areas would be mostly 80s. A little hazy today but not terrible pollution. Looks like sea breezes are keeping it away from MBY in the city proper:

Man and here I thought last winter was bad this one might be 10 times worse