And note that depending on the climate sensitivity used, the time of year and direction+amplitude of precipitation changes varies substantially and in some cases even reverses direction.
And these are the average of CMIP5 solutions, respectively. Individual GCMs come to different conclusions, much like ensemble members in the ensemble mean of numerical weather models.
And FWIW I’m giving these models 100% of the benefit of the doubt here. Given they are unable to simulate glacial/interglacial cycles without substantial tweaking of inputs (and have failed to simulate TUT H2O/lapse rate feedback) I would not put much stock in them, for the time being.
I agree 100%. I’d wager we’ll all be looking back in two months thinking what pipe dreams we were thinking of as we’ve been roasting the majority of the time between now and then. I think it comes around to my dismay.
It will come but I think it might hold off until August this summer. August and September as I predicted back in April will have the warmest anomalies.
Yeah, I don't know that there's a statistically significant trend for warmer = wetter in our region at least.
For example, the earliest annual hard data we have regarding precip in our region actually indicates that the 1870s-1880s was a much wetter (and colder obviously) period for us than the present.
It's always been pretty cyclical but the trend line for the last century seems pretty flat overall with some seasonal shifts here and there.