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missed an opportunity for a Palm Tree react

The season is definitely changing. The dry air and chilly mornings have been replaced with a consistent higher dewpoint and mild mornings. Today we're in the 80s with a dew in the 60s. It feels like summer. We could use some rain. Our rainfall was only about average over the last month and recently it has dried out. Next week looks wetter again, but I'm afraid storms will be splitting north and south of me. Some models have been teasing that.

Death Ridge react, the Best Phil react, the Best-er

In my family we call it Lake Poopy! You get an amazing view of the sewage treatment plant when dropping down into the flats of North Everett/South Marysville on I-5 northbound! Such a lovely view Sometimes on magical sunny days you can see the floaters glistening in the slight ripple of a bright breezy day!

What the hell is going on there? https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/05/a-moral-ethical-and-legal-failure-at.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&m=1

We should know by the end of September if Los Angeles and San Diego had a summer this year or not.

Today looks to be our last chilly and dreary day with temps struggling to no higher than the mid 60's. The sun returns tomorrow. Our next chance of rain after today looks to be Wednesday night. Some lower spots could approach 80 degrees on Wednesday before we fall back to near normal temps around the mid 70's toward the Memorial Day Weekend! Chester County wide records for today: High 95 degrees on this date back in 1962 at Devault 1W, Coatesville 1SW and Phoenixville/ Record low occurred just last year with a 29.4 degree temperature in Warwick Township (2023) / Rain 2.68" at Marshallton (2015)

I see a low of 68 coming up Tuesday night. Sheesh, it ain't June yet! Some of the weeks this Spring are not good for those who haven't totally adjusted.

Today might be our last high in the 60s until October.

IO convection has trended stronger (and WPAC weaker) as it’s gotten closer in time. Which suggests the low frequency signal (base state) is transitioning into the E-Hem. Though there is still an increasing WPAC component to tropical forcing over the next few weeks thanks to the MJO, so I don’t think it will fail altogether. It just doesn’t have the steroidal wave-1 signature it did before. The MJO will propagate back to the E-Hem in June, which will constructively interfere with the developing base state, augmenting trades over the dateline/IPWP and likely forcing heavy -PNA/western trough response (a wetter/more zonal pattern compared to the current blocky/meridional one). But the result of that is a large ridge downstream over the CONUS, which will probably expand to cover most of the lower-48 by in July. Once it gets cranking it could be difficult to contain.

Seems like this May could end up a bit wetter than the last couple out here in the Charleston CWA. Living up to its reputation for a top rainfall month on average. In 2022, July/Aug and February were my wet ones, and I remember Jan 2023 having more than 5" of rainfall. Many of last year's months ended below average on precip. The warmest parts of the year are coming up. Looking like no more sub-50 degree lows happen until September. During the next period of warmth I even see an upper 60's low Tue night before more storms roll in. 61 right now and thick fog.

tomorrow are you going to post an MSN article about how Biden is causing prices to go up and that it is all his fault? I'm sounding like a broken record with you, but....what point are you trying to make here? That China = bad? Unfortunately, free market economics is more complicated than that.

I think you haven't seen how much of a hypocrite China really is

Biden’s China Tariffs Are the End of an Era for Cheap Chinese Goods https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/18/business/bidens-china-tariffs.html?unlocked_article_code=1.s00.Vjxu.5MigwCJvi4N5 I am conflicted about this. Long term, I'm not sure it's going to matter. We are delaying the inevitable where there are simply are not going to be enough jobs for everyone due to automation and AI, manufacturing or otherwise. So do we risk a difficult and pricey transition into bringing manufacturing back to the US when intelligent robots are eventually going to take those jobs anyway? I think without question the tariffs on ev cars is a given. But I don't know about the rest. What's also interesting is that this is one of the very few intersections between trump and Biden economics.

How did it handle that IO convection? Still looking like a muted western ridge signal?

Now start using the derogatory f a g word cause I know you want to. I hope one day people like you no longer feel comfortable posting stuff like this and you go back into your proverbial bigot closet. Can't believe I got temp banned for calling you an @sshole after one of your phobia rants like this one.

Not by the ONI definition (in the post WWII era, at least). Though 91/92 - 94/95 and 2002/03 - 04/05 were almost exclusively niño flavored in the grand scheme of things. And 2014/15 - 16/17 all had niño conditions present at some point during boreal winter. Though there was a weak niña anomaly present in summer/fall 2016, which subsequently collapsed in Jan 2017.

Could maybe throw in BLI too.

Has a 3 year Nino ever happened before?

00z EPS is legit. I can still see a pathway to cold neutral or weak niña outcome, but those odds are decreasing. I miss ENSO neutral winters. We are owed a 3-year El Niño after 5 Niñas in 8 years.

SEA PDX SLE EUG Those are the 4 largest metro areas down to the beginning of the empty west.

What stations should I include for the summer forecast contest?

Rooting for La Niña = rooting for global warming. Just FYI.

This has been the nicest May since 2016 imby. More than half the days so far this month have been overcast with rain and/or storms. Exact opposite of last year, when most days didn’t have a single cloud in the sky and trees were losing leaves by mid-June. BLESSINGS

Managed to get a picture of astronomical twilight since it’s easier to see from a plane and managed to get one of the sunrise before it actually rose on the ground. It was pretty cool to see.