2024 ENSO Outlook

[snow_wizard]

I'm not even sure what the experts are saying, but I think a rapid collapse of the strong El Nino to at least weak Nina conditions will happen over the next 4 months or so.  The subsurface profile is the exact opposite of last year and we have recently had a strong trade wind burst in combination with a week of very high SOI which has resulted in the 30 day SOI going positive for the fist time in months.  I'm betting the bubble of cold water moving up from the depths over the eastern Equatorial Pacific will cause a big drop in Nino 1+2 very shortly.

[snow_wizard]

An interesting aside is if we have a significant La Nina next winter it will be in combination with a positive QBO which is the magic combination for a big Western cold wave or two during the winter.

[snow_wizard]

This is the best graphic to depict how the subsurface is the exact opposite of last year at this time.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CPC says 65% chance of a Nina by fall.

[GHweatherChris]

Fillip will be with you both shortly.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CPC says 65% chance of a Nina by fall.

Nice.  It's actually kind of amazing how consistently we've been in cold ENSO in recent years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice.  It's actually kind of amazing how consistently we've been in cold ENSO in recent years.

Negative ENSO is great at my location. Other than 2020-21 which was pretty awful. In general though negative ENSO is pretty solid. I just missed 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2010-11 up here, but they were all awesome. Ninos can have a lot of snow, like 1968-69, 1972-73, 1965-66, or 2018-19, but in general they aren't as great. 

Edited January 22 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

Looking like the 2024/25 expectations will be off the rails! November 1985, December 2008, January 1950, and February/March 2019 redux incoming! Could you imagine if that actually happened…Do you think any of us would actually be sick of it by the end of March? 

[Cloud]

Current outlook. Expect Niño conditions to weaken heading into March/April. ~75% chance of neutral by end of spring. Niña/Neutral heading into the summer with developing Niña from there on. ~65% Niña and 30% neutral  heading into next fall and winter. 

[snow_wizard]

By the looks of the subsurface data this Nino is about to collapse in spectacular fashion.  There is still an area of warmth under Nino 1+2 that is acting like a brick wall to the cold water trying to surface there.  Once that last bit of warmth erodes the flood gates will open and the Nino will collapse.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

By the looks of the subsurface data this Nino is about to collapse in spectacular fashion.  There is still an area of warmth under Nino 1+2 that is acting like a brick wall to the cold water trying to surface there.  Once that last bit of warmth erodes the flood gates will open and the Nino will collapse.

 

Region 3.4 is down to the 1.7 a 0.2 drop

from last week. 

[snow_wizard]

On 1/24/2024 at 6:55 PM, MossMan said:

Looking like the 2024/25 expectations will be off the rails! November 1985, December 2008, January 1950, and February/March 2019 redux incoming! Could you imagine if that actually happened…Do you think any of us would actually be sick of it by the end of March? 

I've often thought about having one winter where each month is represented by the best example on record of that month.  Man would that be epic!  I would definitely go 1884 for December though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I've often thought about having one winter where each month is represented by the best example on record of that month.  Man would that be epic!  I would definitely go 1884 for December though.

On the CPC update today they also indicated a Nina was likely by fall. 

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the CPC update today they also indicated a Nina was likely by fall. 

We are most certainly in a cold ENSO mode right now.  Cold ENSO months have far outnumbered warm ENSO months for many years now.

[Cloud]

It’s likely we’ll be heading into another Niña fall/winter. That’s 3 in the last 4 years! At the very least, the outcome will be a neutral year so the likelihood of of a back to back Niño is slim. 
 

The current CDAS 3.4 index is ~+1.2. While Niño is still holding on strong, it is showing signs of weakening as this value is the lowest over past 2 months. 

[Thunder98]

We are overdue for a Neutral Winter. Maybe in Fall 2025 we could see a Neutral phase.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Jesse downvoted the above post, as usual. 

[snow_wizard]

Cold water is getting close to the surface now.  Just a matter of time.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Cold water is getting close to the surface now.  Just a matter of time.

300 meters down it's like the Northern California coast.

[snow_wizard]

On 2/6/2024 at 4:50 PM, Anti Marine Layer said:

300 meters down it's like the Northern California coast.

Our water is really cold up here too as you might imagine.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is on board with a Nina developing in the coming months.

[snow_wizard]

I'll be surprised if the cold bubble under the Eastern Equatorial Pacific doesn't break the surface this week.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Thunder98]

La Nina is coming

[snow_wizard]

The 7 say change map kind of says it all!

[Black Hole]

Maybe we should get a thread going for ENSO this year. Ocean analysis shows we are already seeing colder water upwell to the surface. 

Model forecasts show a solid signal for a moderate to strong la nina, centered in the central Pacific. I would expect these to change some after we get through spring.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It should be noted that our most recent strong la nina, in 2010-11, followed a strong el nino season (2009-10). In fact, it is common for strong/super el ninos to transition into strong la ninas the following season. In addition to 2010, other years that featured such a transition are 1973, 1988, and 1998. The 1973-74 and 1988-89 la ninas are the two strongest la ninas on record.

[gimmesnow]

I checked those strong nina years on the WI Climatology site and only 2010-11 was above average in snowfall. 2010-11 also was pretty cold but had a strong january thaw. Something we sort of lacked this year.

https://climatology.nelson.wisc.edu/first-order-station-climate-data/madison-climate/historical-snowfall/

 

[Clinton]

Myself and the KC are upgraded to an enhanced risk.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

I checked those strong nina years on the WI Climatology site and only 2010-11 was above average in snowfall. 2010-11 also was pretty cold but had a strong january thaw. Something we sort of lacked this year.

https://climatology.nelson.wisc.edu/first-order-station-climate-data/madison-climate/historical-snowfall/

 

FWIW, your snowiest season (2007-08) was a strong la nina. While the last 2 strong la ninas were above average snowfall in your area, all the others in the 20th century (6 since 1950, or 7 if you include 1916-17) were below average.

[gimmesnow]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

FWIW, your snowiest season (2007-08) was a strong la nina. While the last 2 strong la ninas were above average snowfall in your area, all the others in the 20th century (6 since 1950, or 7 if you include 1916-17) were below average.

Oh thanks for the heads up, 07-08 was pretty crazy looking at the chart from the link I posted.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Latest CPC ENSO Probability: 

[OKwx2k4]

Upper ocean anomalies have tanked like a rock in the last 3 months from their peak in December.

Atmospherically we favor a Niña base state already and the N. Pac is in alignment with this as well. Will be interesting if we can see a full-scale Niña with a cold pdo in place to go with. 

We really just exited the most non-Niño of all the strong ones I can remember, so this Niña will have my interest. 

[Cloud]

Updated charts. Niña seems like a sure thing at this point. Cooler ocean temps taking over.

JJA timeframe is much improved for Niña conditions. 
 

 

[westMJim]

Going from a El Nino to La Nina happens frequently. Since 1950 El Nino has flipped to La Nina in 1954,1963,1983,1987,1995,1998,2005,2007,2010 and 2015. It looks like it may be happening more often recently. I will do some research  sometime in the weeks ahead on how the weather here in west Michigan was during the years that it flipped. Already know the winter of1982/1983 was very warm and that has been the case for the winter of 2023/2024. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Going from a El Nino to La Nina happens frequently. Since 1950 El Nino has flipped to La Nina in 1954,1963,1983,1987,1995,1998,2005,2007,2010 and 2015. It looks like it may be happening more often recently. I will do some research  sometime in the weeks ahead on how the weather here in west Michigan was during the years that it flipped. Already know the winter of1982/1983 was very warm and that has been the case for the winter of 2023/2024. 

We ALL know what happened in December 1983. 

[Black Hole]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We ALL know what happened in December 1983. 

Obviously its true for the PNW, but I think the midwest is also more susceptible to arctic blasts during la nina than el nino. 

[Andie]

I tend to agree with that.   

We’ll have a beautiful week in the high 60’s. Thursday may bring a shower.  A great spring so far.  

[OKwx2k4]

15 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Obviously its true for the PNW, but I think the midwest is also more susceptible to arctic blasts during la nina than el nino. 

Yeah. When you have a cooperative north Pacific, it keeps the cold pushed over on our side. 

[OKwx2k4]

On 3/12/2024 at 4:56 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It should be noted that our most recent strong la nina, in 2010-11, followed a strong el nino season (2009-10). In fact, it is common for strong/super el ninos to transition into strong la ninas the following season. In addition to 2010, other years that featured such a transition are 1973, 1988, and 1998. The 1973-74 and 1988-89 la ninas are the two strongest la ninas on record.

I thought 2010-11 was the top or second strongest, but I may be mistaken. 

Know it was the coldest the Pacific had been overall in decades at one point.