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2024 ENSO Outlook


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I'm not even sure what the experts are saying, but I think a rapid collapse of the strong El Nino to at least weak Nina conditions will happen over the next 4 months or so.  The subsurface profile is the exact opposite of last year and we have recently had a strong trade wind burst in combination with a week of very high SOI which has resulted in the 30 day SOI going positive for the fist time in months.  I'm betting the bubble of cold water moving up from the depths over the eastern Equatorial Pacific will cause a big drop in Nino 1+2 very shortly.

wkteq_xz.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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An interesting aside is if we have a significant La Nina next winter it will be in combination with a positive QBO which is the magic combination for a big Western cold wave or two during the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is the best graphic to depict how the subsurface is the exact opposite of last year at this time.

 

ENSO.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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CPC says 65% chance of a Nina by fall.

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  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CPC says 65% chance of a Nina by fall.

Nice.  It's actually kind of amazing how consistently we've been in cold ENSO in recent years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice.  It's actually kind of amazing how consistently we've been in cold ENSO in recent years.

Negative ENSO is great at my location. Other than 2020-21 which was pretty awful. In general though negative ENSO is pretty solid. I just missed 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2010-11 up here, but they were all awesome. Ninos can have a lot of snow, like 1968-69, 1972-73, 1965-66, or 2018-19, but in general they aren't as great. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking like the 2024/25 expectations will be off the rails! November 1985, December 2008, January 1950, and February/March 2019 redux incoming! Could you imagine if that actually happened…Do you think any of us would actually be sick of it by the end of March? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Current outlook. Expect Niño conditions to weaken heading into March/April. ~75% chance of neutral by end of spring. Niña/Neutral heading into the summer with developing Niña from there on. ~65% Niña and 30% neutral  heading into next fall and winter. 

IMG_5029.jpeg

IMG_5030.jpeg

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By the looks of the subsurface data this Nino is about to collapse in spectacular fashion.  There is still an area of warmth under Nino 1+2 that is acting like a brick wall to the cold water trying to surface there.  Once that last bit of warmth erodes the flood gates will open and the Nino will collapse.

 

cold5.gif

  • Sad 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

By the looks of the subsurface data this Nino is about to collapse in spectacular fashion.  There is still an area of warmth under Nino 1+2 that is acting like a brick wall to the cold water trying to surface there.  Once that last bit of warmth erodes the flood gates will open and the Nino will collapse.

 

cold5.gif

Region 3.4 is down to the 1.7 a 0.2 drop

from last week. 

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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On 1/24/2024 at 6:55 PM, MossMan said:

Looking like the 2024/25 expectations will be off the rails! November 1985, December 2008, January 1950, and February/March 2019 redux incoming! Could you imagine if that actually happened…Do you think any of us would actually be sick of it by the end of March? 

I've often thought about having one winter where each month is represented by the best example on record of that month.  Man would that be epic!  I would definitely go 1884 for December though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I've often thought about having one winter where each month is represented by the best example on record of that month.  Man would that be epic!  I would definitely go 1884 for December though.

On the CPC update today they also indicated a Nina was likely by fall. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the CPC update today they also indicated a Nina was likely by fall. 

We are most certainly in a cold ENSO mode right now.  Cold ENSO months have far outnumbered warm ENSO months for many years now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It’s likely we’ll be heading into another Niña fall/winter. That’s 3 in the last 4 years! At the very least, the outcome will be a neutral year so the likelihood of of a back to back Niño is slim. 
 

The current CDAS 3.4 index is ~+1.2. While Niño is still holding on strong, it is showing signs of weakening as this value is the lowest over past 2 months. 

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Cold water is getting close to the surface now.  Just a matter of time.

wkteq_xz.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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On 2/6/2024 at 4:50 PM, Anti Marine Layer said:

300 meters down it's like the Northern California coast.

Our water is really cold up here too as you might imagine.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

The ECMWF is on board with a Nina developing in the coming months.

1722470400-GXm9vbIz6OQ.png

  • Shivering 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

I'll be surprised if the cold bubble under the Eastern Equatorial Pacific doesn't break the surface this week.  

wkteq_xz.gif

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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