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But you have to remember that we are now getting into March. Spring is right around the corner. The sun is stronger and days are getting longer. I would put more stock into a warmup now than in the middle of winter. The models may very well be overestimating the warmth, but you have to expect a major warmup compared to what we have experienced the last 5 weeks. The weather pattern coming up just screams warmth imo.

Bush was declared the winner by the media too early, starting the whole ball of wax. That whole thing was a bi-partisan (and not in a good way) cluster **** which after the fact in objective analysis shows Gore most likely was the victor.

I think the weird part was the fact you told the story totally wrong. Plus I'm pretty sure Al Gore only invented the internet, not global warming.

Ummm. I'm giving this winter an F and expelling it from school. Terrible all around.

If only... Jesse's gorge experience would have been wall to wall blizzards and sharp September troughs.

Especially September.

Trending milder.

Lines!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

I agree with your assessment. I wasn't sure if I should write that one off, but didn't have time to keep going. Plus, Fort Liard, NWT was reliably 12.5C last month (and the warmest place in Canada that day), so it's not out of unexpected for BC to reach 19.5C during the warmest winter month and winter on record. As for Quebec, it can get cold in the middle even if the south isn't that bad. It is the largest province after all. As an aside: this past month was the coldest winter month on record in the east, while it was the warmest on record in the west. This contrasts to January 1950, which was the coldest on record in the west and the warmest on record in the east. Back to Quebec, it has been the Canadian annual extreme cold spot 6 times since 1900. The last time was 2003 when La Grande 4 was −50.4 °C (-59 °F). The record low for Lac Benoit is -50.1°C (-58°F) from 2002, and the record for Quebec is −54.4 °C (-66 °F) from February 5, 1923. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extreme_temperatures_in_Canada#Occurrences_by_province

I edited my little outburst there....Seriously my secretary is driving me up a wall today. She probably voted for Bush in 2000! In other news a lot of frosty nights this month. Probably not going to be a record warm March! Progress. Hope and change!

The drought should improve for the reasons you mentioned, but the equatorialward progression of the cells will be a gradual and unstable process (influenced by ENSO, solar, QBO, etc). Definitely not a "new normal", though. There's nothing "normal" about what you're experiencing.

Yea, not much happening on the other models yet. Clearly adding 12C to what the models are showing, from now until forever, is the way to go.

So you're saying Gore = Obama just 8 years earlier.

Funny because usually the GFS has a warm bias while the Euro has a cold bias.

I think calling it a travesty is a little bleeding heart. It exposed our system as being more flawed than what was previously believed. Some of those issues have been shored up but the Constitutional issues for the most part remain. Point is, it can swing both ways. Whoever came out on the short end on that one was going to have an excellent argument in dissent.

Environment Canada has released the February summary. Max: Pelly, SK ... Orillia Brian, ON...Barrie landfill, ON... Richmond (nature park), BC = 67F (19.5C) Min: Old Crow, YT = -57.5F (-49.7C) 2nd: Lac Benoit, QC = -57.3F (-49.6C) 3rd: Eureka, NU = -56.6F (-49.2C)

Funny how works sometimes, eh?

Change.

From a seasonal standpoint, I think it'll probably run warm, yes. However, that doesn't preclude troughing on a sub-seasonal scale. There may very well be more GOA troughing this go around..we'll see. Low-frequency forcings scream +ENSO still. The failure of the shake-up I forecasted this winter will tells me we have another year of low-freq +ENSO forcing to go. Still sticking with the 2016 transition, though.

Weird post.

January will be really cold out east. 14101000z nhem 850.gif 14101000z nhem 500.gif .... Make the call.

As much of a bummer this winter was minus a few Arctic blasts in November/December, it's just a swing in the pendulum. Last solar minimum, 2008-2009, my area got buried by an insane amount of snow (greatest on record) and winter lasted well through the beginning of April. Got snow in June, even. It coinscideded with a dip in global temperatures and La Nina, of course. Half a solar cycle later, snow has been very sparse this year. A 180* flip from 2008, really. But like you say...later this decade things will swing back the other direction. The silver lining in less snowfall and milder temperatures is not having to deal with the brute of winter. Snow activities aren't as favorable, but you do other activities in winter instead. I'd have to say that the prospect of increased global cooling is exciting to think about. If it makes for more interesting weather, I'm all for it.

Al Gore will die a bitter man*. *He will die an even more bitter man than he was after he blew the 2000 election. You know the election we all thought he had won after the networks projected him the winner in Florida even though at the time he trailed by tens of thousands in the actual vote count. Then when the final tally was about 538 votes he decided to drag the country through a month and a half of limbo even though everyone knew a partisan SCOTUS would rule against him.

He did. And honestly though my "worst fears" came true for a "worst case scenario" winter. It really wasn't all that bad. In fact all this nice weather has been pretty enjoyable. Either I'm turning into you or I'm just getting older and realizing there are a lot more important things in life than 5 inches of 33 degree rain.

Very intense cold front with blizzard conditions for a while. My house got about 4" which was on the high end for the valleys. Some of the benches north of me got a foot! It will all be gone soon but I will enjoy it while it lasts. This was the biggest storm all season.

Do you have a greenhouse? I hear those are frost-resistant.

This is how we know you haven't had enough rain lately.

You really had a lousy snow season up there.

Just stumbled upon this page and thought people might be interested in how much ECMWF data costs...maximum cost is 140,000 Euros currently ($157,000 roughly at today's rate of exchange) for one year of access. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/catalogue/tariffs_examples.html

This was soooo two weeks ago.

It appears they withdrew their plans to erect a paywall for what can be had for free elsewhere...although I admit their HTML table for GFS 16-day lends itself to utilization in applications without much formatting.