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    The Reno Ridge: Extended Forecast

    By PRISM,

    Hi all:


    Not certain just how long long range means but thought this topic relevant.


    The follow is from the NWS and some of you may find it interesting:



    From: Chris Smallcomb - NOAA Federal [mailto:chris.smallcomb@noaa.gov]
    Sent: Tuesday, January 14, 2014 8:32 AM
    To: _NWS WR REV EM Partners; _NWS WR REV Hydro Patrtners
    Subject: NWS Reno -- Long Range Outlook Remains Dry


    Good morning all. Normally I try to reserve these messages for storms, floods, and other weather events of significance. But clearly the lack of storms is becoming the event of significance in our region and is resulting in negative impacts to water supply and economy. Unfortunately I don't have good news on the storm front. Here's what we're seeing this Tuesday morning --

    • Our latest long range diagnostics continue to point toward high confidence in a blocking ridge of high pressure over California and Nevada through at least mid to late next week. This will shift the storm track well north of the area. This ridge is unusually strong and persistent - and to be honest we don't really know why it's been this way this winter.
    • There is a chance, albeit small, of a weak low pressure storm squeaking in under the ridge and producing some light precipitation in the Sierra and slightly increased winds next week but confidence is low. In general light winds and weak-moderate valley inversions will be the rule.
    • This lack of precipitation is certainly cause for concern regarding drought. The US Drought Monitor update will be posted this Thursday morning. Please check it out then at http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/  Our super long range outlooks into February and March are still uncertain - no favored outcome between above and below normal precipitation. But honestly at this point it's going to take a number of big storms to make up the precipitation deficit we now have in the Sierra.


    That's what we have for now. Definitely let me know if you have questions or need specific info. Attached is a graphic showing one of the neat new tools we use to do long range forecasts - looking specifically at this blocking high pressure ridge. 






    Chris Smallcomb

    Warning Coordination Met

    NWS Reno - 775.673.8100 x223


    CFS / Euro Weeklies Thread

    By westiztehbest,





    Day 15-20:



    Day 17.5-22.5:



    Day 20-25:







    ***Euro EPS weeklies***


    The Euro EPS weeklies show the Western death ridge getting shoved NW-ward towards the GoA after day 10.  From day 11-15 it takes its resident November position (hugging the NW B.C. coast).  By day 16 the ridge continues its NNW migration into the Arctic.  At that time the NW is shown to have normal 500 mb heights.  At day 19 (February 1st) it shows the persistent Eastern trough expanding westward and by day 24 (February 5th)...it shows the West firmly under negative height anomalies and cold 850 mb temperatures (similar to the CFS).

    California Drought-Weather Discussion

    By Utrex,

    Let's discuss about the persisting drought/ridge of California.

    Also... Weather for California in general.


    I posted this on westernusawx regarding the ridge's behavior. All it takes is for one of these factors to switch neutral at least.


    "The new discovery I just made is that the PDO has been at its lowest since 1977... The beginning of the "warm PDO episodes". I also read about the AMO and its effects to the west coast. If the AMO strives at a positive, it brings drier weather from WA to Socal. If negative, the contrary.



    No, I doubt this winter will top off a thrusting storm or two. The PDO + AMO, the top dry factors I see are aligned... And their negative/positive levels are quite deep. With the -PDO and +AMO aligned, the ridge will constantly repair itself.



    If a PDO is negative, a pool of higher height anomalies forms in the North Pacific. By combining the +AMO, that pool of high height anomalies has shifted to the GoA. That's why that ridge won't leave."



    In addition to these decadal oscillations, QBO is in the westerly phase at the moment. Very soon, it will approach the easterly phase.



    As we know, the developing +ENSO will *finally* replenish the west.

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