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    Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

    Niko
    By Niko,

    Another "possible" Winterstorm is waiting in the wings to happen for some folks on here over this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Will this storm be the same w the previous 2waves? Will mix precipitation be mixing in and or rain? Could it be a miss for some and a huge hit for others? Lot of details to iron out here over the next couple of days. Models will definitely be busy. Good luck to all.

    Lets discuss this as soon as we are done w the present storm that we are dealing with.............


    Good morning Utqiaġvik, Alaska

    Mr Marine Layer
    By Mr Marine Layer,

    The northernmost city in the U.S. will see their first sunrise since November 18 today.

    The full disk of the sun will not be seen, but the sun will appear for about 46 minutes.

    image.png.7487177e662090fd04a583fcb189b406.png


    1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

    Tom
    By Tom,

    Alright folks, I think its time to whip up a thread for our next storm system that is being advertised on the models for this upcoming weekend into the early part of next week.  During the previous 2 LRC cycles, this system was a signature storm and one that produced a lot of precip, esp the 2nd stronger piece that the operational models are flashing.  There is a lot of blocking in place during this period which will make tracking this system interesting.  That's why I believe we are seeing some good runs and bad mixed into the bunch.  With that being said, the ensemble trends are what I'm looking at this point in time and the EPS has been steadfast developing the 2nd wave which fits the LRC quite well.

    Let's dive into the data...

    00z EPS mean pretty much shows the 1st wave delivering up North and then spreads the mean snow shield farther south.  In fact, I think it did tick S a bit from previous run.  Actually, I just checked and it did quite a bit esp across the lower lakes region since 00z 19th run.

    2.png

    3.png

     

    00z Euro Control...

    1.png

     

    I'd like to comment on the LRC and why I see support on the models that the 2nd stronger wave should develop into a widespread system with ample moisture.  Back in LRC cycle #1, it produced a signature storm that had a massive comma shape trowal feature on radar Oct 28th-29th (http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=15&year=2020&month=10&day=28&hour=12&minute=0)

    During LRC cycle # 2 it produced a SLP that tracked along a frontal boundary right through the S MW/Lower Lakes region...

    Click Image For Station Plots

     

    To cap off this post, I am encouraged to see the uptick in moisture from the EPS as it fits this pattern in my opinion...

    5.png


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