I generally agree. Maybe we’re nearing some consensus on this!
I tend to think that the regions that pass statistical significance testing are of fairly high confidence. And ultimately people need to make decisions based on the best available projections—which is what these maps largely show.
I remember a lot of talk the first week of July 2022 about how this was finally going to be it.
Then the 4CH parked itself right over us and stayed put for 3 months.
Extreme precipitation events are a primary reason for statistical significance of modeled future precip changes in the PNW (and not all simulations show increases to begin with).
Yeah, I think it's more meaningful, at least with the Euro. At face value the smoothed mean just shows sprawling, slightly above normal heights everywhere. Hard to say what that actually translates to in terms of real world pattern.
But the main point is that it appears a period of anomalous troughing is in store for the West before whatever might come later.