At least we had a long-standing lull this year. That was never the case in 2005. In the month prior to his post, we had Tropical Storm Franklin (7/21-7/29), Tropical Storm Gert (7/23-7/25), Tropical Storm Harvey (8/2-8/9), and wait for it... a long-running hurricane that dissipate just a few days earlier, in Irene (8/4-8/18). That post was just stupid, lol.

NOAA: Forecast attention remains centered on the Wednesday and Thursday periods as strong Potential Vorticity energy and jet forcing aloft moves into the Central United States. The mass adjustments are expected to result in additional cyclogenesis in vicinity of the Great Lakes. A high variance in potential outcomes remains on the table as some fairly substantial outliers exist. One of these outliers is the 18.00Z NAM12 solution which suggests a fairly long duration of accumulating snow. Still a long ways off from any answers as the latest cluster analysis of EPS/GEPS/GEFS datasets places the deepest surface troughing north of Southeast Michigan over the Lake Huron basin and a tertiary low pressure center deepening off of Long Island by 12Z 11/21. Edit: I think its too early in the game. IMHO, if I were to make a call this far out, I would say more like a hvy rain &wind scenario w/ mixing of snow and no accumulations for S MI. We will see what happens. Im still waiting for that 2nd shortwave to enter onshore from the pacific. Models will then have a much better handle of this.

Today will be our warmest day of the week with temperatures in the mid 60's for highs. We will turn slightly cooler tomorrow before a sharper change to colder by Wednesday night through the rest of the week. Our best chance of significant rain looks to arrive Wednesday night with as much as an inch in some lucky spots! Shower chances will continue through the end of the week, and we may even see some snow mixing in across some spots on Friday. Temperatures on Friday may not escape the 30's in higher locations.

Here is the 06Z HRRR. Looks like the HRRR is a lining with the NAM with the wind speed. Maybe this is going to be a region wide windstorm the next couple of runs will let us know if it will be 🌬

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/43 there was a trace of rainfall. The sun came out 1% of the time. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 70 was in 1958, 2016. The coldest high of 19 was in 2014, the record low of 11 was set in 1959 the warmest low of 54 was set in 2015. The wettest was in 1921 with 1.68” the most snow fall of 9.6” fell in 2014 the most snow on the ground was 8” in 2022, 2014 and 1989. Last year the H/L was 50/24. Here in MBY I had a shower last night the dropped 0.02” of rain. The overnight low here was 36 and at the current time there is dense fog and 37.