Let's see if today's 12z Operational runs can mirror the + trends overall in the EPS/GEFS for the 5th/6th storm...Euro AI appears to have lead the way...

I got .71" total rain yesterdays event. And for 2024 mby sitting at 43.99" which comparing over 300 locations in Iowa is the 7th highest. Intrestingly the automated gage at OTM is 7.5" lower than my 2 certified gages in mby!!!! OTM is just 5.5 miles away! There are 3 or 4 gages within 25 miles of mby that also have around 44". So despite several long dry periods of 20 plus days. 2024 will be a wet yr. 4 inches in January 2024 and 3" in December 2024 significally boosted the totals.

Ya, its crazy how similar they look and as a forecaster you have to be able to "see" the LRC to be able to take into account seasonal changes, jet stream strength, and high lat blocking. TBH, it's clear as day when you "get it"...

Indeed, that can be a tall order 36 hours out sometimes! But yes, I hope all of us that have been mostly left out can see some good winter.

The video just overlayed the 500mb maps. It was just cool to see them line up.