Very good ensemble agreement for snow for the northern Plains and upper lakes. EPS GEFS

I hit 78 yesterday and should push into the Lower 80s today. Some of my fruit trees have began blooming way to early and will get zapped by the freezing temps forecasted early next week. Some strong thunderstorms are in the forecast tonight hopefully they produce some heavy rain and generate some runoff to fill ponds.

Yesterday was a very warm March Day across much of Michigan with many record highs set. Record highs were set at Grand Rapids 71, Kalamazoo 72, Holland 68, Detroit 73. Flint 72, Saginaw 68, Alpena 69, and Houghton Lake 65. It was also a warm overnight here in MBY with a low of 55 and with light rain it is now 58. The next 7 days will see it turn colder with highs today in the upper 50’s dropping down to the low 40’s and then colder yet to the upper 20, by Monday. Lows with range from the upper 30’s down to around 20. There will be a chance of thunder today and then rain and snow for several days in the next week. KEY MESSAGES SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI Detailed Forecast Overnight A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 55. South wind around 6 mph. Tuesday A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Low around 38. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday Rain showers before 5pm, then rain, possibly mixed with snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. High near 45. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 41. Thursday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 2am, then rain showers. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Saturday Night Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Sunday Rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Sunday Night Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 71/47 there was no rainfall the highest wind speed was 31 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 42/25 the record high of 68 was in 1894 the coldest high of 17 was in 2003, 1933 the record low of 3 was in 1972 the warmest low of 49 was in 2021. The wettest was 0.68” in 1992 the most snow fall of 8.7” was in 2023 the most snow on the ground was 16” in 2014. The sunrise today is at 8:03 AM and the sun set is at 7:43 Some weather history for March 10th 1922, Dodge City, KS, reported a record 24 hour total of 17.5 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1990, Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather from southeast Iowa to central Indiana and north central Kentucky. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Knox KY, and hail two inches in diameter west of Lebanon IN. Evening thunderstorms over central Oklahoma deluged Guthrie with 4.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) and in 2010, As many as four people are injured, one is killed and homes were damaged in Center Hill and Pearson, AR, by an EF2 tornado.

29F. Dry!

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