Roughly a foot of rain down the coast over the next month-ish

Last night's extended 00z GEFS. Remarkably consistent Niña signal, with some hints at a more easterly block after 1/10

All the warm anomalies, none of the fun. The last five summers in a nutshell

The thing is at PDX it was 82F and sunny at 3 pm with a decent CAPE profile then. Westerlies rolled in the next hour which doomed it.

It was outside of climo for a reason. That surface based convection was doomed by default. I was almost convinced we might actually see that thunderstorm complex come to fruition when we rocketed up to 71F under sunny skies on the 25th, but when I woke up late around 11am the next day to 49F cloudcover, I knew that forecast was cooked. That exact pattern (even temp parameters) rolled forward a month would probably not drop below 50F at night and the 26th would have hit 77F. And it still probably wouldn't have been as good as what the NAM was showing. At least we got the midlevel stuff to a degree.