Keep in mind that models tend to overdo ENSO strength at this phase. And we also had a strong Nino just 2 winters ago. Historically, it would be unprecedented to have another strong one so soon.

Another I-80 snowstorm brewing up? Both GFS/ICON are showing something interesting and the AIGS...

unfortunately all indications appear to be that this coming one will be at least moderate and likely strong.

yes please

Lol. The significance of QBO/ENSO polarity degrades to near meaninglessness if ENSO amplitude is weak, though. So this comparison only applies if we enter a healthy moderate or strong niño regime. Otherwise subseasonal/intraseasonal variability will dominate.