New day 3 SPC outlook expanded the risk area west and mentioned higher probabilities possible on future updates. The 18z HRRR is on the higher end with dewpoints compared to some models. Valid at 18z Thursday:

This is expected to be the strongest El Niño since 2023-2024, which was one of the top five strongest warming episodes on record. More on that episode below. weather.com A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with #ENSO-neutral favored through MJJ 2026 (55% chance). El Niño is likely to emerge In JJA 2026 (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

March 31 Nino 4 is >+0.5... +0.525 This is way ahead of other later in the year >+1.2 El Nino's.. only 2015 and 1997 were greater for the month of April. April 1957 -0.06 April 1963 -0.34 April 1965 -0.92 April 1968 -0.46 April 1972 +0.11 April 1982 +0.33 April 1986 -0.34 April 1987 +0.08 April 1991 +0.34 April 1994 +0.11 April 1997 +0.59 April 2002 +0.41 April 2009 -0.26 April 2015 +0.98 April 2023 +0.13

March monthly SOI came in at +7.59. Since 1950, no +1.2+ later in the year El Nino had a March SOI >5.5 fwiw. Only 1 had SOI >2.1 Doesn't mean it can't happen, 15 total examples (RONI) March 1957 -2.7 March 1963 +5.5 March 1965 +2.1 March 1968 -3.6 March 1972 +1.2 March 1982 +0.7 March 1986 -0.3 March 1987 -16.1 March 1991 -10.1 March 1994 -10 March 1997 -7 March 2002 -5.6 March 2009 -1.3 March 2015 -10.7 March 2023 -1.78

Will be nice to get a bunch of rain followed by some milder weather. Spring is progressing!