Yeah they do have a bit of a warm bias. I think it will go Strong >1.51 ONI trimonthly, with the chance that it goes Super >2.01 ONI trimonthly. I'll bet you $100? It's started really early in the year, with a Kelvin wave happening and changing the subsurface this past Dec-Jan, now it looks like a next level up Kelvin wave will happen this April. All the "before El Nino later in the year" composites have been working like I've never seen something work before, ever since November. I'd probably bet you that it goes Strong.

Yeah, I was gonna say...OLM hit 12 with that. That was pretty legit for mid February, record level lows in fact.

Yeah some hit or miss chilly nights aren’t too hard to come by even in the worst winters. Our last real tap of Arctic air and sub freezing highs was January 2024. February 2025 was a fairly chilly stretch but no legit arctic air.

What's the bet? Have you tracked the ENSO models in previous years? They are notorious for overdoing magnitude. Doesn't mean a UBERMEGASUPERDUPER El Nino won't or can't happen, but you gotta take the models with a bigly grain of salt.

Go Blue!