April PDO number will definitely still be solidly negative.

The mid February to mid March cold/trough signal during Niñas is probably the strongest correlation I can think of. And another signal that extends way back. For example late February 1890 was probably our coldest airmass on record for that particular chunk of calendar and was a massive Niña event. And yeah, I'm afraid of what we're going to see temp-wise on a global scale these next couple years if a mega Niño does develop. We're already pushing global records each and every month and that's with a weak Niñaish base state the last two years. Very likely we shatter some more global records. And each of the last few major strong Niño events since 1997-98 have represented a global temperature baseline shift. For example, the 1999-01 Niña never got as cold globally as 1996 was right before the huge Niño. Ditto for the 2020-22 multi-year Niña, which was significantly warmer than the previous major Niña event a decade earlier. And now 2024-present appears to be warmer yet again than just prior to the last big Niño.

Enjoy your stay! Temps overperformed on the cool side this morning as I had a low of 34. Don't think any model was quite that cold but I'd have to go back and look. Wonder if LOT will issue a freeze warning for Saturday morning. Perhaps they won't have enough confidence to do so, but it's one of those times that I'm just going to assume that there could be a freeze.

Ehhhh... worst you will have to deal with being in a development in the middle of an urban area is some smoke in the air. We could lose our home in a forest fire. But I can't make it rain when we really need it... mid to late summer into early fall. That is what happened during the Nino summer of 2015. That had to be the sunniest June in history and it was in the 90s over the 4th and then we had several rain events and zero smoke the rest of the summer. The world was going to end according to some and then nothing happened.

Crappy marine layer trash this morning