I don't think anyone can answer why Strong/Super Nino's have reversed so hard over the past 100 years. You will say heat release but in weather the same condition usually continues. I don't buy most explanations, which explain something after the fact. However if you asked me what the chance of an El Nino is in 27-28 after this one goes Strong/Super, I would say something like 5%.

I was going to troll him too with the "thousands" number (although I knew you would be eager to jump on it), but 1400 is way way more than I thought. That's a legitimate disaster for a heat wave..

So you're saying if we had decades of nothing but Ninos, we'd see global cooling. But isn't ENSO always part of the ocean's cyclic temperature uptake and dispersion regardless? So that would never happen. Also, as the atmosphere warms from AGW, it seems like that would favor more Ninas overall as the ocean is forced to soak up more and more heat.

If you include Canada, yeah. US was 600, with just 229 confirmed. 123 of those were in OR where Andrew resides, and probably less than a dozen lived above 1500'.

If that isn’t proof enough, let’s look at super Niños that weren’t followed up by strong/multiyear Niñas. 1957/58: Multiyear neutral ENSO follows. No temperature step change upwards. 1965/66: 2-year essentially neutral ENSO followed by another multiyear Niño 1968/69 - 1969/70: No temperature step change upwards. [In fact, that entire 14 year stretch from 1956/57 to 1969/70 had only 2 Niñas and both were weak, but a multitude of Niños, 2 of them super Niños. And it was a period of global cooling]. zero mod/strong Niñas and only 2 weak Niñas no moderate only saw 2 weak Niñas, no moderate/strong events. And And mo didn’t have a single Niña surpass weak threshold, only saw 2 1982/83: Followed by 3-year general cold neutral regime, then multiyear Niño. No temp step change following Niño. 1991/92: Can argue Pinatubo contamination, but that would have attenuated by 1994, which was another Niño year with no upward step in global temps. Regardless, the polarity is clear between strong/super Niños with/without recoils to strong/multiyear Niñas afterwards. And it speaks to what is happened w/rt the planetary heat budget during Niña years, which is opposite of what many think.