ECMWF AIFS is crazy volatile. Can't trust it. It assured me Fathers Day was going to be a washout for many runs. Yet the reality was sunny and 80 on the lake. ECMWF AIFS ensemble seems to be gold standard now. And it has the same basic pattern as the ECMWF.

Up to half an inch for the day. Model runs not looking good for Team Torch right now.

Euro shows the bulk of the July troughing remaining focused to our WNW. Keeps a pretty stout west to east gradient across the region, with warm but generally pleasant weather for the westside and hot for the eastside. Probably a lot more likely than whatever the robot model is showing.

ICON looks like the ECMWF at 180 hours which is the end of its run.

Hmmm. I was just showing that it agreed with ECMWF. And the pattern the ECMWF shows one week from right now sets up a good holiday weekend. If the ECMWF is close at 168 hours then we are set.