idk, some AIFS runs have been pretty torchy, with hints of a ridge bridge at times. We'll have to see how much any recurving typhoons influence the larger-scale pattern as the month goes on, though I'd be surprised if ORD finishes below average.
Personally I'm not able to get a good feel for how this month will end up. Looks up and down. Some Nino Octobers have been quite below average... that does not really look to be in the cards this time. Not really seeing a good signal for sustained warmth either though. Maybe it just ends up kind of close to average around the Lakes. Better warm signal farther west imo.