2024 is beginning a bit early with a disturbance.
Some slight tropical or subtropical development is possible while the low moves northeastward through the weekend but the NHC currently pegs the storm at just 10% odds of reaching tropical depression status within the next several days.
I was going to post on this yesterday and the more I look into the data for this weekends Severe Wx threat, I see a potential long-lived MCS across KS/MO into IL/IN. @Clinton and the KC peeps should be on the "look out"....
Oddly enough, the ICON has been steadfast on this idea...
It's pretty clear now this month is going to end up solidly below normal for the region overall. Since 4/27, SEA has been below normal 70% of the time. The only thing preventing this May from ending up very cool a la 2022 is the brief heat spike 5/10-5/11.
Here's the rest of the month.