Even well before hour 384 there is a serious intrusion of cold air.

My mom, aunt, and uncle were in hurricane shelter in Venice 20 yrs ago when Charlie was expected to make landfall there. They got very lucky when it made the last-minute jog and hit Punta Gorda instead. They have all passed on now. That area of FL has been long over-due tbh - it was even back then. Ironic, I just had my buddy from Detroit say his wife and he were trying to figure out another option for their annual winter trip to FL because they have always gone where Helene just destroyed everything. I told him Clearwater down to Venice is nice and not taken any direct hits from a hurricane..

I think the overall correlation comes out at ~0.75, not bad. I feel like at this point, they might even be able to extend the model out a bit. Euro seasonal has been pretty good with overall H5 patterns too. But yeah, sometimes the 15-day model will pick up on a 30-40 day forecast potential.

Because she's a bumbling mess without a teleprompter!

There was a talk I attended at my last job that went in deep about low res NWP forecasting as opposed to AI forecasting and what they found that the last 5 days emerge patterns that pop out 15 days later. It was kind of weak correlation, but was used for forecasting Atlantic waves as energy moved off the Sahel. Maybe recency bias, but I feel like that can apply to us and the 500mb pattern over the Pacific.