The terrain between Valdosta, GA and Anderson, SC where the bulk of the wind damage and deaths were is largely flat and is topographically distinct from the Blue Ridge foothills in the far west part of SC. It's just that the strong forward speed of the storm allowed those Cat 1 level winds to surface a little further inland than you'd normally see.

So, what site is that with the green and yellow dots?

Even well before hour 384 there is a serious intrusion of cold air.

My mom, aunt, and uncle were in hurricane shelter in Venice 20 yrs ago when Charlie was expected to make landfall there. They got very lucky when it made the last-minute jog and hit Punta Gorda instead. They have all passed on now. That area of FL has been long over-due tbh - it was even back then. Ironic, I just had my buddy from Detroit say his wife and he were trying to figure out another option for their annual winter trip to FL because they have always gone where Helene just destroyed everything. I told him Clearwater down to Venice is nice and not taken any direct hits from a hurricane..

I think the overall correlation comes out at ~0.75, not bad. I feel like at this point, they might even be able to extend the model out a bit. Euro seasonal has been pretty good with overall H5 patterns too. But yeah, sometimes the 15-day model will pick up on a 30-40 day forecast potential.