Interesting senate poll showing the Republican Moreno up 51-49 in Ohio, and Cruz only up 3% in Texas. In my conversation with Dave Wasserman from the Cook Report today, he seems to think Brown could be in trouble in Ohio.

So I did a little digging on the crosstabs of the NYT polls from today. One interesting question they asked was how respondents voted in the 2020 election. Arizona: Poll: Trump 50 Harris 45 2020: Trump 49-46 (Of course Biden actually won Arizona by 0.3%. Other notes: Trump leads by 16% among men, Harris leads among women by 4%. Harris leads 49-41% among Hispanic voters. Trump leads white voters without a college degree 63-34%. Trump leads by 9% among those who said they did not vote in 2020. Georgia: Poll: Trump 49 Harris 45 2020: Biden 52 Trump 45 (Actual was Biden +0.6%) Other notes: Trump is leading non-college educated white voters by an astonishing 78-15 margin. Trump leads by 12% among those who did not vote in 2020. North Carolina: Poll: Trump 49 Harris 47 2020: Biden 49 Trump 47 (Trump won by 1.3%) Notes: Trump leads men by 17%, Harris is only up 8% among women. Trump leads among white voters 60-36% and Non college educated voters 71-24%. Harris does slightly better with voters of color in NC leading among black voters 84-9%. Trump leads 51-44 among independent voters. Trump also leads among people who did not vote in 2020 by 7%.

Amplification continues!

Weak it is!! Hope it stays that way.

Both highly respected models. But bombing out at 888 is hard to believe.