I think the issue is the Harris/Biden administration seems to smugly enjoy sticking it to working people. They love to see Americans suffer while they shovel money to Ukraine and illegal "migrants."
It's very difficult for pollsters to gauge turnout of Trump voters. That's one of the issues. It's not about "shy" Trump voters, it's that a lot of his constituency are folks who are generally tuned out of the political process. I'm sure they have made adjustments and overall the pollsters did very well in 2022, but they also did well in the 2018 mid-terms. I think overall turnout will be lower than 2020.
I agree... Trump can't really be blamed for the COVID crash and likewise its unfair to blame Biden for the post pandemic mess and soaring inflation worldwide. Forces beyond the control of the president. As I said... lots of it comes down to luck and timing.